How we work out the numbers

Every number on this site comes from one small piece of math that runs in your browser. It's simple on purpose, so anyone can check it.

The whole idea, in one line

Your starting priceabout $1,490what you pay, or typical for your state

A few adjustmentsdriver, car, place, coverageeach one a percentage up or down

A range$1,250–$2,500our best guess: $1,720

That example is the page's starting situation: a 40–64-year-old in the Illinois suburbs with a 2020 Toyota Camry and full coverage.

1. A starting price

If you tell us what you pay now, we start from your real number. It stays on your device, and it's the most accurate starting point there is.

If you don't, we start from what drivers in your state paid on average in 2023 for full coverage: liability (which pays for damage you cause to others) plus collision and comprehensive (which fix or replace your own car). That figure comes from the National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC). Prices have gone up since 2023, so we bring it up to today with the government's price index for car insurance.

We treat that average as the price for a middle-aged driver with no at-fault accidents, living in the suburbs, with an average car and a $1,000 deductible (the part of a repair bill you pay yourself). Then we adjust from there. Because it's an average across everyone, starting from it makes the range wider. See the starting price for every state.

2. A few adjustments

Each thing that matters moves the price up or down by a percentage. A 16–18-year-old on their own policy, for example, costs almost three times what a 40–64-year-old does. One at-fault accident adds about half (+52%).

The best evidence comes from state insurance departments that publish real prices from many companies for the same sample drivers, changing one thing at a time. It's sitting in PDFs and web tools that few people ever open. Of our 26 adjustments, 9 come straight from those published prices, 4 are worked out from public data less directly, and 13 are still our best guess.

Some adjustments only touch part of the bill. About half of a full-coverage bill is liability; the rest fixes your own car. So the deductible, the car's age, and a loan only move the second part, and liability limits only move the first.

The car

The Highway Loss Data Institute (HLDI) publishes how each model's insurance claims compare with the average car. A car that costs more to repair raises the part of the bill that fixes your own car. A car whose drivers cause more crashes raises the liability part, though only partly, because insurers do the same. When we don't have a model, we use the average for its kind of car (small SUV, midsize car, and so on) and widen the range. That's the “Why” you see when you tap a car on the Compare page.

3. A range, not a price

Two companies can quote the same driver very different prices. So every estimate is a range, roughly where most companies would land, with our best guess marked in the middle. The more we had to estimate ourselves, the wider it gets. Real quotes can still land outside it.

What's sourced, and what's our estimate

We label every adjustment one of three ways, right next to the number:

From published prices (9 of 26). Taken from a state's published price survey or rules, with the source linked. When those prices come from another state, we say which one, since yours may differ.
Worked out from public data (4 of 26). Less direct, so the range is a little wider.
Our best guess (13 of 26). We couldn't find a public source yet, so we made a careful guess and widened the range. These are the best places to help.

What we don't do

We don't ask about credit. Many insurers use it where the law allows, so your real quote could move up or down because of it.
We don't use gender or marital status. Where a survey gives both, we average them.
We don't know your address or your history with an insurer. Only your state, and whether the car is kept in a city, the suburbs, or a small town.
We can't see every discount, like safe-driving apps or paying in full.
We don't sell anything. No leads and no ads.

How you can help

13 of our adjustments are still our best guess. If your state's insurance department publishes sample prices (many do, often as a PDF called a “rate comparison guide”), it could turn a guess into a sourced number for everyone. These five would help the most. Four are our best guesses; the fifth rests on one state's prices.

1.How a $500 or $2,000 deductible changes the price
Found it? Tell us
2.How much less an older car costs to insure
Found it? Tell us
3.What a good-student discount is worth
Found it? Tell us
4.What adding a teen costs outside California
Found it? Tell us
5.What two or more at-fault accidents add
Found it? Tell us

Suggest a better number Other ways to help

Every number the math uses

Here's the full list, with how sure we are about each one. Each change is measured from the row marked “Measured from here”. The worked details are in the factors notes on GitHub, and all 15 sources are on the Sources page.

Show every adjustment

Driver's ageThe age of the main driver. Teens cost the most, and it falls steadily until middle age.
When	Change	Could be	Where it comes from
16–18	+187%	+157% to +281%	From published prices
16–18, added to a parent's policy (the whole household's bill)	+66%	+43% to +95%	Worked out from public data
19–21	+92%	+69% to +106%	Worked out from public data
22–25	+30%	+20% to +49%	From published prices
26–39	+11%	+6% to +20%	From published prices
40–64	no change	—	Measured from here
65+	+5%	−5% to +16%	From published prices

Years licensedOnly counts from age 26. For younger drivers, their age already says they're new.
When	Change	Could be	Where it comes from
10 years or more	no change	—	Measured from here
1–3 years (age 26 and up)	+32%	0% to +73%	Our best guess
4–9 years (age 26 and up)	+16%	0% to +34%	Our best guess
Under a year (age 26 and up)	+32%	0% to +108%	Our best guess
Doesn't apply under 26	no change	—	Measured from here

Driving recordAt-fault accidents in the last three years.
When	Change	Could be	Where it comes from
No at-fault accidents	no change	—	Measured from here
One at-fault accident	+52%	+38% to +66%	From published prices
Two or more at-fault accidents	+140%	+70% to +240%	Our best guess

Miles drivenHow far the car is driven in a year.
When	Change	Could be	Where it comes from
7,500–15,000 miles a year	no change	—	Measured from here
Under 7,500 miles a year	−8%	−12% to −6%	From published prices
Over 15,000 miles a year	+8%	+4% to +15%	Worked out from public data

Good-student discountUsually a B average or better, under 26.
When	Change	Could be	Where it comes from
No	no change	—	Measured from here
Yes (under 26)	−8%	−15% to 0%	Our best guess

Driver-training discountFor drivers under 22 who took a driver's ed course.
When	Change	Could be	Where it comes from
No	no change	—	Measured from here
Yes (under 22)	−5%	−10% to 0%	Our best guess

Bundling with home or rentersHome or renters insurance with the same company.
When	Change	Could be	Where it comes from
Not bundled	no change	—	Measured from here
Bundled	−10%	−15% to 0%	From published prices

Where the car is keptMeasured from a small town or the country, the least expensive kind of place. A typical state price already assumes the suburbs, so going from the suburbs to the city costs less than this column suggests.
When	Change	Could be	Where it comes from
City	+29%	−1% to +101%	From published prices
Suburbs	+14%	+7% to +65%	Worked out from public data
Small town or country	no change	—	Measured from here

Liability limitsThe most the policy pays for damage you cause to others, per person / per crash / property. This only moves the liability part of the bill.
When	Change	Could be	Where it comes from
$100,000/$300,000/$100,000	no change	—	Measured from here
your state's minimum	−13%	−21% to −10%	From published prices
$250,000/$500,000/$250,000	+15%	+5% to +30%	Our best guess

DeductibleThe part of a repair bill you pay yourself before insurance pays the rest. This only moves the part that fixes your own car.
When	Change	Could be	Where it comes from
$500 deductible	+8%	+2% to +18%	Our best guess
$1,000 deductible	no change	—	Measured from here
$2,000 deductible	−12%	−20% to −5%	Our best guess

Loan or leaseLenders usually ask for full coverage. This only moves the part that fixes your own car.
When	Change	Could be	Where it comes from
Owned outright	no change	—	Measured from here
Loan or lease	+5%	0% to +12%	Our best guess

Car's ageNewer cars cost more to fix or replace. Measured from a car 0–3 years old; a typical state price already assumes an 8–12-year-old car. This only moves the part that fixes your own car.
When	Change	Could be	Where it comes from
0–3 years old	no change	—	Measured from here
4–7 years old	−12%	−22% to −3%	Our best guess
8–12 years old	−25%	−40% to −10%	Our best guess
13 or more years old	−38%	−55% to −20%	Our best guess

How a full-coverage bill splitsNot an adjustment, but a share. About half of a full-coverage bill pays for damage you cause to others, and the rest fixes your own car. The finer splits are in the notes on GitHub.
When	Change	Could be	Where it comes from
The part of a full-coverage bill that pays for damage you cause	51%	45%–65%	Worked out from public data

What widens the rangeNot adjustments. Each one says how much lower or higher a real price could be when that thing is part of the estimate.
When	Change	Could be	Where it comes from
Starting from a typical state price, not yours	—	−21% to +27%	From published prices
How closely real prices follow a car's claims	—	−12% to +17%	Worked out from public data
Luxury and electric cars	—	−18% to +28%	Worked out from public data
A model year outside the claims data	—	−10% to +11%	Our best guess
A name sold as both gas and hybrid	—	−8% to +10%	Our best guess
Sporty cars, or ones with pricey repairs	—	0% to +30%	Our best guess
A luxury car we price by its kind, not its model	—	−23% to +37%	Worked out from public data
A car we price by its kind, not its model	—	−8% to +9%	Worked out from public data
A car we don't recognize	—	−14% to +12%	Worked out from public data
A luxury or sports car we don't recognize	—	−6% to +34%	Worked out from public data
Only partly sure which version of the car	—	−5% to +6%	Our best guess
Not sure which version of the car	—	−8% to +10%	Our best guess
Moving between two states	—	−10% to +11%	Our best guess

Kinds of cars, when we don't have the exact modelFrom HLDI's insurance claims, compared with the average car. We use these when we don't have claims for the exact model. The last row is how much of a car's liability record we count; it isn't one of the 26 adjustments.
When	Change	Could be	Where it comes from
Small car: damage and injuries you cause	+30%	—	Worked out from public data
Small car: damage to your own car	+9%	—	Worked out from public data
Midsize car: damage and injuries you cause	+28%	—	Worked out from public data
Midsize car: damage to your own car	+20%	—	Worked out from public data
Large car: damage and injuries you cause	+28%	—	Worked out from public data
Large car: damage to your own car	+20%	—	Worked out from public data
Two-seater: damage and injuries you cause	−26%	—	Worked out from public data
Two-seater: damage to your own car	+53%	—	Worked out from public data
Small SUV: damage and injuries you cause	−4%	—	Worked out from public data
Small SUV: damage to your own car	−17%	—	Worked out from public data
Standard SUV: damage and injuries you cause	−11%	—	Worked out from public data
Standard SUV: damage to your own car	−8%	—	Worked out from public data
SUV: damage and injuries you cause	−10%	—	Worked out from public data
SUV: damage to your own car	−15%	—	Worked out from public data
Small pickup: damage and injuries you cause	+1%	—	Worked out from public data
Small pickup: damage to your own car	−20%	—	Worked out from public data
Full-size pickup: damage and injuries you cause	+5%	—	Worked out from public data
Full-size pickup: damage to your own car	−1%	—	Worked out from public data
Minivan: damage and injuries you cause	−12%	—	Worked out from public data
Minivan: damage to your own car	−11%	—	Worked out from public data
Van: damage and injuries you cause	−7%	—	Worked out from public data
Van: damage to your own car	−18%	—	Worked out from public data
Special purpose vehicle: damage and injuries you cause	−10%	—	Worked out from public data
Special purpose vehicle: damage to your own car	−15%	—	Worked out from public data
Luxury small car: damage and injuries you cause	−5%	—	Worked out from public data
Luxury small car: damage to your own car	+43%	—	Worked out from public data
Luxury midsize car: damage and injuries you cause	−5%	—	Worked out from public data
Luxury midsize car: damage to your own car	+43%	—	Worked out from public data
Luxury large car: damage and injuries you cause	−9%	—	Worked out from public data
Luxury large car: damage to your own car	+87%	—	Worked out from public data
Luxury two-seater: damage and injuries you cause	+16%	—	Worked out from public data
Luxury two-seater: damage to your own car	+113%	—	Worked out from public data
Luxury small SUV: damage and injuries you cause	−6%	—	Worked out from public data
Luxury small SUV: damage to your own car	−11%	—	Worked out from public data
Luxury SUV: damage and injuries you cause	−22%	—	Worked out from public data
Luxury SUV: damage to your own car	+14%	—	Worked out from public data
Luxury standard SUV: damage and injuries you cause	−16%	—	Worked out from public data
Luxury standard SUV: damage to your own car	+61%	—	Worked out from public data
Luxury special purpose vehicle: damage and injuries you cause	−22%	—	Worked out from public data
Luxury special purpose vehicle: damage to your own car	+14%	—	Worked out from public data
Electric small SUV: damage and injuries you cause	−16%	−25% to −9%	Worked out from public data
Electric small SUV: damage to your own car	+18%	+8% to +24%	Worked out from public data
Electric SUV: damage and injuries you cause	−18%	−18% to −9%	Worked out from public data
Electric SUV: damage to your own car	−5%	−5% to −1%	Worked out from public data
We count about half (52%) of a car's liability claims record	52%	26%–79%	Our best guess

For AI assistants

Using an AI assistant to help, say to pick a few cars for a new driver? Ask it to read notaquote.fyi/llms.txt first. That page shows it how to get the same numbers you see here, from the same math, and asks it to show ranges, not single prices.

The assistant only sends a state, a few choices like an age band or a coverage level, and car names. There's no place to send a premium, a VIN, a ZIP code, or a name, and we turn away requests that plainly include one. More about privacy.

Saving and sharing

Your choices are kept in this browser, so the pages remember them. The link carries your choices, not our estimates. It includes what you pay only if you check the box. It all sits after the “#” in the address, which browsers don't send to any server, and whoever opens the link gets the numbers worked out fresh. More about privacy.

Data updated September 22, 2026. Math version 0.2.0. What's changed

This is an estimate to help you plan, not a quote. We don't sell insurance, and we never pass your info to anyone. Only an insurer can give you a real price.